2025 Real Estate Market Predictions

Lately, I’ve been receiving a lot of questions from both friends and clients about where I see the housing market heading in 2025. I wanted to take a moment to share my perspective, but also provide insights directly from a great source—our CEO, Robert Reffkin.

Previously, I touched on the uncertainty in the market, largely driven by the election and fluctuating interest rates. However, now that the dust is settling, I believe we're starting to see a clearer path forward.

Robert Reffkin, CEO of Compass, recently appeared on MSNBC to share his outlook for the future of real estate. You can watch the clip here, but to summarize his key points:

• Interest rates are likely to remain around 7% for the next couple of years.
• Inventory continues to be a significant challenge, with a shortage of available homes on the market.
• Historically, after each election cycle, both real estate transaction volumes and prices tend to rise (I've attached a chart for reference).
• For the market to return to pre-pandemic sales levels, interest rates would need to stay below 6% for a sustained period.

From my day-to-day experience working in the market, here are my personal thoughts:

1. Inventory Shortage: The lack of available homes continues to be a major issue. Sellers—especially those with single-family homes—can expect heightened interest simply because there is limited supply.

2. Buyers Adjusting to the New Normal: Buyers are slowly coming to terms with current interest rates, but they are being more discerning and cautious in their home choices due to the increased cost of housing.

3. Luxury Market Trends: The luxury segment ($1M+) is likely to see continued activity, as many buyers in this price range are less impacted by interest rates.

4. Off-Market Deals: We will likely see a rise in "off-market" listings here in the DMV area, as sellers realize they can leverage their properties more effectively by avoiding the days-on-market associated with listing on the MLS.